Earnings season rolls in every quarter with a familiar buzz of headlines, analyst forecasts, and nonstop commentary on who beat expectations and who didn’t. CNBC’s tickers are humming. The Wall Street Journal is breaking it all down. And if you’re in the middle of a big life decision (buying a second home, considering a career change) all that noise can feel particularly loud.
You may have noticed we don’t call every time earnings are released. That’s not because we’re ignoring the markets—we’re paying close attention. We just don’t believe reacting to every headline is a winning strategy that serves your long-term goals.
Our role is to make sense of what’s happening and share meaningful perspective, not let short-term surprises drive investment decisions. Markets move. Earnings surprise. Volatility happens. That’s normal. What’s not normal or helpful is letting those short-term surprises drive decisions about wealth you’ve spent decades building.
Here’s the philosophy behind how we approach these moments together, and what it means for how your portfolio is positioned.
Related: Fourth Quarter 2025 Market Overview
Rule #1: By the Time You Hear It, It’s Already Priced In
A few years ago, U.S. stocks were on fire while international stocks lagged. Naturally, clients would ask: “Why are we still investing in international stocks when US stocks are doing better?”
The answer was straightforward: because we don’t know which will do better next time, and just when you’re ready to give up on something, it often surprises you by outperforming. Sure enough, U.S. tech cooled off, and international stocks had a strong run. If we’d chased what looked good at the time, we would’ve missed it.
When a major tech company reports disappointing earnings, or when an unexpected sector surges, there’s a natural impulse to do something.
By the time you hear about any market-moving news, the market has already known about it (and priced it in) for months.
The information you’re receiving has already been absorbed, analyzed, and reflected in current pricing by millions of investors all making independent calls. So when you think, “I just learned something important; maybe I should act on this,” you’re actually months behind. The market repriced that information long before it showed up in your inbox.
This is especially true when thinking about your expected portfolio returns. Many investors set unrealistic expectations based on a single strong quarter or year, or panic when returns temporarily lag. But realistic return expectations should be based on decades of market data, your specific asset allocation, and your timeline, not the latest earnings cycle.
– What this means for your portfolio
Many of my clients can now tell me what I’m going to say before I say it when headlines scream “bubble” or “crash.” You’re not betting on one stock, one sector, or one prediction. We don’t invest based on feelings, forecasts, or earnings reports. We invest based on your timeline, your goals, and what you’re building toward.
Your portfolio includes exposure to the technology companies driving AI innovation, along with value stocks, small-cap stocks, international holdings, and emerging markets. When you’re diversified like this, you don’t need to predict the future, because you’re already positioned for multiple outcomes.
Rule #2: You Can’t Outsmart the Markets or Predict Returns
In The Wisdom of Crowds, author James Surowiecki shows that when hundreds of people independently guess how many jelly beans are in a jar, the average of all those guesses is remarkably accurate (far better than most individual guesses).
Markets work the same way. Millions of investors make independent assessments daily about what securities are worth. That collective pricing, while not perfect, is extraordinarily difficult to beat consistently, even for firms with unlimited research budgets and armies of analysts.
– What this means for your portfolio
Instead of attempting to outsmart the collective wisdom of global markets, we focus on what we can control and what actually matters for your financial success. That means understanding your goals, your timeline, your risk tolerance, and the life circumstances that shape your financial decisions.
Our conversations about whether you’re thinking of buying a second home, how you’re feeling about your career trajectory, or what your retirement vision looks like matter infinitely more than trying to predict which stocks will beat earnings expectations next quarter.
Rule #3: Your Life Doesn’t Follow Market Quarters
Earnings are reported every 90 days. Analysts update their ratings weekly. CNBC measures market performance by the hour.
But your financial life doesn’t work that way.
You’re not building wealth for the next quarter; you’re building it for the next 20, 30, maybe 40 years. You’re planning for a second home, for career flexibility, and for retirement that looks nothing like your parents’ retirement. These goals don’t care about Q4 earnings.
This is the fundamental mismatch between financial media and actual financial planning: Wall Street needs you to care about quarterly earnings because that’s how the game is scored. But your game has completely different rules, a different timeline, and frankly, a different scoreboard.
– What this means for your portfolio
There will always be another earnings season, another surprise, and another headline insisting now is the moment to act. Financial media thrives on urgency; that’s how it captures attention and keeps you watching.
When people search for “expected portfolio returns,” they’re often looking at the wrong timeframe. The right question isn’t ‘what should I expect this quarter?’ but ‘what should I expect over the next 10, 20, or 30 years based on my specific allocation and goals?’ That’s a fundamentally different conversation.
Your financial life works on a different timeline, measured in the goals you’re building toward, the security you’re creating, and the life you want for the people you care about.
At Team Hewins, our approach is built around your timeline, not the market’s. We can’t predict next quarter’s winners or the timing of the next market downturn (and no one can, consistently). What we can do is keep you broadly diversified, help you understand what’s happening when markets move, and prevent short-term noise from driving long-term decisions.
The Real Work Happens Between Earnings Seasons
If you’re already working with Team Hewins, this approach should feel familiar. You’ve seen how we respond (and sometimes don’t respond) when markets get noisy. And ideally, you’ve felt the calm that comes from knowing your portfolio is built for the long run, not the latest headline.
But if something ever gives you pause — a scary article, a bold prediction, a “should we be doing something?” moment — reach out. We’re always happy to walk through what’s happening, provide context, and remind you why your portfolio is positioned the way it is. That’s part of what it means to have a partner who looks after your whole financial life.
Curious what this approach could look like for you?
Let’s talk about your goals, your timeline, and how to build a portfolio designed for the long run in a complimentary Big Decisions Clarity meeting.
Still exploring? Click here to learn more about our philosophy and our people.
Team Hewins, LLC (“Team Hewins”) is an SEC-registered investment adviser; however, such registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training, and no inference to the contrary should be made. We provide this information with the understanding that we are not engaged in rendering legal, accounting, or tax services. We recommend that all investors seek out the services of competent professionals in any of the aforementioned areas. Certain information provided herein is based on third-party sources, which information, although believed to be accurate, has not been independently verified by Team Hewins. Team Hewins assumes no liability for errors and omissions in the information contained herein.